Category: COMESA

New Merger Guidelines fail to revise Rules flaw, but adjust notification threshold upwards

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COMESA Competition Commission logo

COMESA publishes new Merger Assessment Guidelines, uses back-door defintion to adjust threshold to >$5 million

On Friday, the COMESA Competition Commission published its 2014 Merger Assessment Guidelines, available here in PDF.  They finally replace the prior Draft Guidelines, which the agency’s Willard Mwemba had predicted would be finalised no later than June 2014.  The new final version fails to put a formal end to the technical zero-dollar notification threshold, but — through a back-door definition of what it means to “operate” in the COMESA region — does achieve the practical effect of terminating what AAT has dubbed the “zero-threshold contagion” – i.e., any transaction between parties with any turnover/revenue whatsoever within the common market of COMESA used to be notifiable.

We invite our readers to take a look at the entire document.  Rather than having the COMESA Board meet and re-draft the actual Rule, the CCC appears to have taken the short-cut solution of ex parte “Commission consider[ation]” of what it means for a company to “operate” in the organisation’s jurisdiction.  Section 3.9 re-defines “operat[ion]” of a COMESA company as follows:

3.9 The Commission considers that an undertaking only “operates” in a Member State for purposes of Article 23(3)(a) of the Regulations if its operations in that Member State are substantial enough that a merger involving it can contribute to an appreciable effect on trade between Member States and restriction on competition in the Common Market. For these purposes, the Commission considers that an undertaking “operates” in a Member State if its annual turnover or value of assets in that Member State exceeds US $5 million.

However, it notably maintains all references to the “Rules on Notification Threshold,” which continue to specify a “U.S. $ zero” threshold:

3.4 The Commission’s Board prescribed such threshold with Council approval in the Rules on Notification Threshold, the scope of which is also limited to mergers having a “regional dimension”(Rule 3). According to the Rules on Notification Threshold currently in force, the threshold of combined annual turnover or assets for the purposes of Article 23(4) is exceeded if:
(a) the combined worldwide aggregate annual turnover or the combined worldwide aggregate value of assets, whichever is higher, of all undertakings to the merger in the Common Market equals or exceeds US $ zero; and
(b) the aggregate annual turnover or the aggregate value of assets, whichever is higher, of each or at least two undertakings to the merger in the Common Market equals or exceeds US $ zero.

It is not as though the CCC’s staff were unaware of the critiques levied against their zero-threshold regime.  Mr. Mwemba stated back in February 2014 that the agency had been setting “the wheels in motion for the threshold to be raised.”  The Commission has been eportedly working with the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation to determine what the proper notification thresholds should be.  AAT also understands that other antitrust advisors — including former FTC Commissioner, Chairman, law professor and competition-law conference mainstay Bill Kovacic — were helping the young enforcement agency to design a more workable and internationally respected merger-review regime.

COMESA to media reps: “Dr. Livingstone, I presume?”

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COMESA Competition Commission logo

Zambia hosts COMESA Competition Commission workshop to sensitize journalists to antitrust

As many African news outlets are reporting, their journalists were recently invited to take part in a competition-law “sensitization workshop” hosted by high-ranking CCC personnel in Livingstone, Zambia.

In light of COMESA’s currently lackluster merger enforcement and virtually non-existing merger notifications (none since 19 March 2014), this “media sensitization” public relations effort on the part of the CCC leadership comes as no surprise.

Here, we quote from the Seychelles Nation:

 


The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (Comesa) competition commission recently organised a regional sensitisation workshop for business reporters.

The aim of the workshop, held in Livingstone, Zambia, was to enhance the role of the media in exposing anti-competitive business practices and promoting a competition culture in markets. 

The media was explained the role of good reporting on the competition policy within the Comesa, whose prime objective is to promote consumer welfare through encouraging competition among businesses. This objective is achieved by instituting a legal framework aimed at preventing restrictive business practices and other restrictions that deter the efficient operation of the market, thereby enhancing the welfare of consumers in the common market. 

Comesa is a regional economic grouping composed of 19 member states namely; Republic of Burundi, Union of Comoros, Democratic Republic of Congo, Republic of Djibouti, Arab Republic of Egypt, State of Eritrea, Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Republic of Kenya, Libya, Republic of Madagascar, Republic of Malawi, Republic of Mauritius, Republic of Rwanda, Republic of Seychelles, Republic of Sudan, Kingdom of Swaziland, Republic of Uganda, Republic of Zambia and Republic of Zimbabwe.  The grouping’s objective is for a full free trade area guaranteeing the free movement of goods and services produced within Comesa and the removal of all tariffs and non-tariff barriers.

But only journalists from Kenya, Malawi, Mauritius, Seychelles, Rwanda, Swaziland, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe were present at the workshop. Seychelles was represented by journalist Marylene Julie from the Seychelles NATION newspaper.

The Comesa competition law is, in this regard, a legal framework enforced with the sole aim of enabling the common market attain the full benefits of the regional economic integration agenda by affording a legal platform for promoting fair competition among businesses involved in trade in the common market and protecting consumers from the adverse effects of monopolisation and related business malpractices.

Among the topics discussed at the meeting were the definition and scope of competitive policy;  the relevance of competition policy in ensuring market efficiency and the protection of consumer welfare; overview of the Comesa competition regulations, its legal basis and implementation modalities.

Mergers and acquisitions were also explained and why competition authorities regulate them. 

The media representatives also learned about their role in ensuring businesses notify transactions with competition authorities to avoid the dangers of anti-competitive business.

Hosting the workshop were the director and chief executive of the Comesa competition commission, George K. Lipimile; the manager for enforcement and exemptions Vincent Nkhoma and Willard Mwemba, manager (mergers & acquisitions).

In a message from the secretary general of Comesa Sindiso Ngwenya which was read by Mr Lipimile, Mr Ngwenya welcomed all media guests in Livingstone for the sensitisation workshop.

He said the gathering means that Comesa is reaching out to one of the most important key stakeholders in the region – the media. 

He also said the media plays a great role in advancing the group’s advocacies in the regions and through it Comesa is creating awareness surrounding the current regional trade order and the need for a competition policy for the region.

“Today our specific governments as well as other economic operators and the general public are appreciating that competition policy has a key role to play in creating conditions of governance for the national, regional and global market place,” read the message.

Explaining why the competition policy is an important instrument, Mr Lipimile said it forces companies to run themselves efficiently, ensures a level playing field, forces economic operators to adjust changes and encourages innovation. Competitions lead to lower prices, greater dynamism in industry and most important of all greater job creation.

He added that competitive markets are needed to provide strong incentives for achieving economic efficiency and goods that consumers want in the quantities they want.

Regarding mergers and acquisitions and why competition authorities should regulate mergers, Mr Mwemba said the regulation of mergers is one of the most important components of any competition legislation and policy. 

He explained that sometimes mergers are effected to eliminate competition. 
“Therefore mergers need to be regulated so as not to injure the process of competition and harm consumers,” said Mr Mwemba.

He highlighted that firms merging just to eliminate competition is detrimental to consumers as it results in poor quality goods, high prices, and fewer choices to them.

He also stressed the media’s role in ensuring firms notify their mergers so that they do not merge for ulterior motives. 

The media can also avoid situations where firms  keep the merger a secret as they are mindful competition authority may reject their application. 
“The media should act as watchdog by reporting mergers that have happened in the country,” said Mr Mwemba.

As for Mr Nkhoma, he said there are several ways in which anti-competitive business practices can harm consumer welfare and derail the gains of intra regional trade. 

He said this during his presentation on anti-competitive business practices and the role of the media in enhancing the competition culture. 

He gave examples of two well established firms in a country or region which are engaged in fierce competition with each other. Such competition leads them to independently introduce innovations aimed at outwitting each other on the market such as offering lower prices, discounts, rebates, etc.  The consumer benefits from this rivalry in terms of low prices, high quality, etc. 

He explained the scenario where two firms decide that rather than compete, they agree on what quantities to supply on the market and at what price and quality.  The two firms will end up maximising profits at the expense of consumer welfare. 

“This is what is described as a cartel, a situation where businesses rather than compete, seek to collude to exploit high prices from the market. Markets dominated by cartels will ultimately become complacent in their business decisions and as a result, consumers lose out by way of poor quality products, high prices, etc.,” said Mr Nkhoma.

He also said consumers may also have experienced scenarios where a firm or a collection of firms become so dominant in the market to the extent of behaving without effective constraints from existing competitors or potential competitors. Such dominant firms have an incentive to charge excessive prices knowing that consumers have no alternative of getting similar goods or services anywhere feasible. 

In Seychelles the competition regulator is the Fair Trading Commission (FTC). In a recent press release, FTC said it is setting up a National Competition Policy which comes at a time when Comesa is seeking to harmonise the Comesa competition regulations with domestic competition law. 

The National Competition Policy aims at guiding governments on applying laws, regulations, rules of policies that will allow businesses to compete fairly with one another in order to foster entrepreneurship activity and innovation. 

The policy will also guide the commission in the enforcement of the Fair Competition Act 2009 and will provide a platform upon which national policies can be harmonised with the existing competition law.

Antitrust amnesty: new regime to go online soon

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kenya

Kenya to become latest competition jurisdiction with cartel leniency scheme

As Mugambi Mutegi of the Business Daily reports, Kenya is the latest antitrust jurisdiction to embrace a self-reporting leniency programme.
Mr Wang’ombe Kariuki, director of the CAK

Self-reporting of “hard-core” competition-law offences (such as price-fixing cartel conduct, market division, bid rigging, or group boycotts among horizontal competitors) has long been a staple of antitrust enforcement in the most developed jurisdictions, including the United States and the European Union.  In South Africa, cartel-whistleblowing leniency has just passed its 10th anniversary, and in the EU, the European Commission’s “Notice” on the non-imposition of fines in certain cartel cases (i.e., the EU’s leniency regime) recently celebrated its 18th birthday — nowadays, more than 75% of the EC’s cartel matters are uncovered thanks to one or many cartel members “snitching” on their counterparts, in exchange for full or partial amnesty from antitrust prosecution and attendant fines.

The Competition Authority of Kenya (CAK) has recently upped its rhetoric, threatening criminal sanctions against various business sectors’ potential cartel members and disputing jurisdiction of the multi-national, but still feeble, COMESA competition authority in merger cases.

In Africa, Kenya (AAT archive on CAK issues here) is now becoming a new member of the “Leniency Club”, rewarding whistleblowers with eased penalties for volunteering relevant tips and information on the workings of the cartel.  The CAK is acting to implement the provision of the Kenyan Finance Bill 2014, which allows it to terminate cartel investigations with lighter punishment for whistleblowers, all the way to a full pardon.

“The Authority (CAK) may operate a leniency programme where an undertaking that voluntarily discloses the existence of an agreement or practice that is prohibited by the Competition Act and co-operates…in the investigation of the agreement may not be subject to all or part of a fine…”

The agency’s web site — which otherwise (unusually) refers to the Business Daily article quoted here, instead of issuing its own press release — tersely provides as follows:

Cartel firms get amnesty in new CAK regulation

The competition regulator has drafted a law that will see whistleblower companies and their directors get off with lighter punishment for volunteering information that helps to break up cartels.

The Competition Authority of Kenya (CAK) says introduction of this law, which is already in the Finance Bill 2014, will attract informers that can help to bust unlawful business agreements between cartels and other secretive pacts that facilitate anti-competitive behaviour.

Whistleblowers whose evidence leads to the successful termination of such agreements and punishment (fines and jail sentences) of the participants will either get reduced fines or full pardon.

The CAK’s Director General, Francis Wang’ombe Kariuki, is quoted as saying that the authority’s is merely awaiting Parliament’s amendment of the law, and that “[t]he settlement policy we have drafted includes offering leniency to the directors of companies who come forward individually or as a group to report on cartels or unlawful business pacts“.

Competition agencies to split up, abandon dual roles

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Dual role of Commission prompts constitutionality questions

As Portia Nkani reports in the Botswana Gazette, the country’s two competition-law authorities are slated to be separated in the near future.  Botswana – a COMESA member state – has both a Competition Commission and Competition Authority.  Concerns over the dual roles of the Competition Commission (it is, since January 2011, both the strategy-setting administrative entity supervising the Authority and a quasi-judicial agency) have reportedly led to the structural change in organization.

The Chairman of the Competition Commission, Dr Zein Kebonang purportedly has voiced support for the decision to separate the two functions and agencies, saying “that regular contact between Commission and CA officials could give raise to reasonable appreciation of bias. ‘The independence and impartiality of Commissioners cannot be guaranteed when it doubles up as a board and as a tribunal. Besides relational bias, the likelihood of informational bias is also far too great. Sitting as a Board, the Commission acquires prior knowledge of disputes that are to be adjudicated before it as a tribunal. Undoubtedly, prior knowledge of a dispute may operate in the minds of the Commissioners and thus deprive the parties that appear before them a proper hearing,'” he has written in a position paper.

Procedural fairness demands that investigative and adjudicative functions must be kept separate. This is desirable because competition law and policy must be implemented in an objective, impartial and transparent manner. Unless the Competition Commission and the Competition Authority are afforded independence from each other, they are unlikely to objectively decide matters presented before them and the risk of bias will forever be present,’” he said, adding that public confidence and trust can only be enhanced if the adjudicative and administrative function were separated.

The initial call for the split of the authorities was made by lawyers for panel-beating companies under investigation last year (see article here):

Sadique Kebonang, counsel for one of the parties, had argued that the relationship between the agencies was “too intimate”: “The main test here is what the ordinary man out there perceives the two entities to be.”

Costly COMESA courthouse, ZA investigates Visa provider & holds ground on Sasol fine

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south_africa

Lots AAT news this Monday, from Sudan/COMESA to South Africa

Visa facilitator backed by one branch of government & investigated by another

In substantive antitrust news, the South African Competition Commission is reported to be investigating alleged abuses of market dominance by VFS Global in the visa support services market to foreign embassies.

VFS is a worldwide outsourcing and technology services specialist for diplomatic missions and governments.

The firm has now drawn the potential ire of the Commission, as it is now apparently the only outlet for foreigners to apply for South African visas and work permits, as well as for South African citizens to obtain entry visas for multiple countries abroad.

The irony here that we at AAT perceive is that the monopoly position of VFS appears to be based on the new immigration regulations imposed by the ZA government itself (notably the Department of Home Affairs) earlier in 2014: According to a report, the company had recently opened the doors of its multiple offices across the country — “The Pretoria (Gauteng), Rustenburg (North West) and Kimberley (Northern Cape) centres were the first to open on Monday, 2 June. It is envisaged that the last office will be opened on 23 June.”

The investigation – to be confirmed by the Commission this week, as it potentially launches a full-on formal inquest – was purportedly initiated by a competitor complaint from company Visa Request, claiming damage to its competing business flowing from the governmentally-imposed dominant position of VFS’s (allegedly pricier) services…

Commission stays course on Sasol

In more ZA news, Competition Commissioner Tembinkosi Bonakele is staying the agency’s strong course on the excessive-pricing fine imposed on Sasol, which is said to be appealing its R543 fine that had been upheld by the country’s Competition Tribunal, and which Commissioner Bonakele thinks “should be bigger”…

In our prior AAT reporting on the Sasol abuse-of-dominance case we said:

The S.A. Competition Tribunal is hearing the excessive-pricing portion (which was not settled) of the Commission‘s claims against the refining & steel giant this month.  The relevant legal underpinning of the case is the provision against excessive pricing by a dominant firm.  Precedent has declared prices excessive that “bear no reasonable relation to the economic value of the good or service” at issue.  Pheeew.  Facts.  Economics.  Nice.  Looks like a coming battle of the experts to me…

By comparison, in the U.S., antitrust law of course does not forbid “excessive pricing.”  While setting and reaping apparently high prices may be indicative of monopoly power, such acts are not in themselves anti-competitive or illegal in the States.  In Verizon v. Trinko, the U.S. Supreme Court held famously that:

The mere possession of monopoly power, and the concomitant charging of monopoly prices, is not only not unlawful; it is an important element of the free-market system. The opportunity to charge monopoly prices—at least for a short period—is what attracts “business acumen” in the first place; it induces risk taking that produces innovation and economic growth.

Interestingly, there is a notable history of failures in the area of ‘excessive pricing’ complaints in South Africa, as well, despite the statutory legitimisation of the cause of action.  In the prior ArcelorMittal and Telkom cases, the Commission and/or Tribunal lost in the end, either at trial or on appeal to the Competition Appeal Court.  That Court had found, in the ArcelorMittal case, that the antitrust watchdogs could not use the ‘excessive pricing’ provision of the statute to combat perceived anti-competitiveness in the “market structure rather than price level.”

Today, Bonakele is quoted as follows:

“These are different times.  I can promise you this matter is not going to disappear. Sasol is out of touch if it believes it can win the matter on the basis of technical legal arguments. This issue has to be resolved either through competition law or through government policy.

The issue in this case is fundamental to the development of our economy. We are dealing with resources that should be available to promote that development. The government plays an important role in the country’s industrialisation, and I believe it will be very interested in the progress of this case.”

COMESA’s costly courthouse

While the COMESA organisation has had trouble in the virtual world this year, its real-world endavours appear to be prospering: Its shiny new courthouse, built to the tune of over $4 million (equivalent to only 8 merger filing fees), has opened its doors.  The country’s Minister of Justice, Mohamed Bushara Dosa, last week handed over to the COMESA Secretariat-general the Khartoum-based court premises.

The court will notably hear antitrust and merger cases that are appealed from the organisation’s Competition Commission.

 

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The glimmering COMESA court house in Sudan, built to the tune of $4.1 million

COMESA news of the day: web site down again; 5 “exemption” letters granted

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COMESA Competition Commission logo

Site down – 5 “comfort letters in 5 months – Guidelines revision by June

In an almost farcical repetition of its information-technology woes, the COMESA Competition Commission’s web site (http://www.comesacompetition.org/) is off-line, yet again, after having been successfully hacked multiple times.  Whether the latest outage is due to a similar attack or simply (and hopefully) due to its webmaster’s shoring up the competition enforcer’s IT security measures remains to be seen.  (We have not yet heard back from the agency’s leadership on our request for information on the online data safety of parties’ submissions.)

In more substantive news, IFLR reports that the CCC has issued five so-called “Comfort Letters” since December 2013, exempting otherwise notifiable transactions from the duty to file (as well as the concomitant payment of the (high) filing fees), where the actual nexus to the COMESA region was negligible or non-existent.  This may help explain some of the lackluster filing statistics on which we reported previously.

The report also quotes the CCC’s head of mergers, Mr. Willard Mwemba, as saying that the revision of the Competition Guidelines should be finalised by the end of June 2014.

Competition authority issues sectoral warning, threatens criminal sanctions

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kenya

Wake-up call to would-be cartelists and monopolists in Kenya

The Standard reports that the Competition Authority of Kenya (“CAK”) (AAT archive on CAK issues here) is threatening cartelists with prison terms of up to 5 years and fines up to 10 million Shilling ($115,000).

According to the report, CAK Director General Francis Wang’ombe Kariuki said that “investigations are already being conducted in [the] transport, insurance, shipping, milling, banking, cement, sugar, health care and tea” sectors, pursuant to purported consumer complaints.

CAK Director General Kariuki

The CAK has actively pursued antitrust matters, using novel approaches of late, as AAT recently reported on a seemingly hybrid unilateral/collusion case (“Kenya: Lafarge faces possible price-fixing penalties due to cross-shareholding“).  The CAK is also the sole COMESA member enforcement authority that has, to our knowledge, challenged the fledgling and issues-plagued COMESA Competition Authority’s jurisdiction in various merger cases.

COMESA old flag color

Malicious COMESA web site attack: Competition Commission hacked 3rd time

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For the third time in a month, the fledgling pan-African antitrust enforcer’s web site has been disabled by hackers

As competition-law attorneys counseling clients on the necessity of notifying mergers in the COMESA jurisdiction, we view these developments with – put mildly – shock.  This is especially true as confidential party data and documents would appear to be at risk of involuntary and malicious disclosure to third, unauthorized parties.  As reported at AfricanAntitrust.com, the COMESA enforcement agency’s web site has previously been hacked and later simply disabled.

COMESA leadership non-responsive

On both prior occasions, AAT’s editors wrote to the COMESA Competition Commission‘s webmaster, as well as the agency’s leadership (Messrs. George Lipimile and Willard Mwemba), to seek an explanation of the attacks.  We also asked them about the safety of data and other confidential party information submitted to the CCC via its extranet & online document repository.

Not only have we not received any response to date.  What’s more, in a – perhaps unsurprising, at this stage – turn of events, the Commission has now been subjected to its third hacking attack.

Hackers boast of achieving successful attack

This latest episode also embodies the most disconcerting hack, as it appears visually and substantively more malicious than the prior attacks (one of which featured an Indonesian love poem, whilst the second rendered the CCC’s page simply blank).  A visual example of the latest attack can be found below.  The hackers (identified as “Kinal Undetected” from SerdaduPerangCrew and SPCSO) [note: prior and subsequent links open hacker-related pages] acknowledge – for the first time – that it is an intentional event and not merely an accidental outage or otherwise unintended gaffe of the CCC’s webmaster.  Moreover, the perpetrators even submitted a screenshot of the intrusion to “Zone H“, a clearing-house of hackers, as evidence of the attack on Monday.  This means that the CCC’s site has been disabled for at least two full days (through 14 May — UPDATE: the regular COMESA site is back up and running at 16:00 CET, 14th May).  On the prior occasions, the site likewise remained compromised for several days in a row.

Logo of the successful COMESA hackers displayed on CCC’s web site (May 12-13, 2014)

High risk of data security breach & next steps

We are in the process of sending yet another follow-up e-mail to the CCC’s executives to obtain further information about this unsettling and embarrassing security breach/failure, including: (1) risks to confidential corporate information, (2) the impact on the private deliberative process of the Commission, as well as (3) steps the CCC intends to take to prevent future replication of these embarrassing and dangerous attacks, including (we propose) the retention of a professional data-security firm for advice and potentially management of the web interface.

COMESA hack no3

 

Call for parties to CCC proceedings to take action

Especially in light of COMESA staff’s unsettling silence in response to alerts to these attacks, and as we have done before, we are notifying our readership (and particularly current or potential future parties to CCC merger reviews) regarding the deficiencies in the competition enforcer’s electronic systems. These may impact the timetable and resulting deadlines of pending merger investigations, and it is advisable that all such interested parties enquire with the Competition Commission about the procedural effect of the outage.

Investment in Africa: Changing landscape, new hurdles

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Questioning African antitrust growth prospects: Slowdown in economic investment (both organic and outside investment) may affect functioning of competition law on the continent

Recent developments in Africa have many scratching their heads and wondering whether the formerly wondrous economic-growth engine of the vastly resource-rich and otherwise economically still undervalued continent will soon experience a slowdown, if not come to a halt altogether.

For one, in April 2014, Nigeria surpassed South Africa as the continent’s largest economy (see Economist Apr. 12, 2014: “Africa’s New Number One“).  This is a significant milestone for the former, and a setback for the latter — an economy that was 8 times the size of the Nigerian economy only 20 years ago, yet is now suffering from stagnating GDP, reeling from corruption allegations amongst its current leadership, undergoing a closely-watched presidential election process, and whose ruling ANC party is facing a heretofore unprecedented backlash and torrent of criticism.

Source: The Economist

Not only South Africa has weakened, politically and economically, however.  Events such as the Northern Nigerian wave of violence – with sectarian Boko Haram forcefully displaying the impotence of the central Nigerian government of a weakened president Goodluck Jonathan – fuel the fire of outside investors’ mistrust of African stability and their concomitant reluctance to make good on prior investment promises.  As The Economist notes in the article quoted above: “it is not a place for the faint-hearted” to invest, even though it highlights the successful Nigerian business ventures of outsiders such as Shoprite, SABMiller, and Nestlé.  Bloomberg BusinessWeek quotes Thabo Dloti, chief executive officer of South Africa’s fourth-largest insurer Liberty Holdings Ltd. (LBH), as saying: “It does slow down the plans that we have, it does put out the projections that we have by a year or two.”

http://www.stanlib.com/EconomicFocus/Pages/InterestingChart112SouthAfricaneconomyvsNigerianeconomy.aspx
Nigerian vs. RSA GDP
Source: http://www.stanlib.com

Likewise, multi-national organisations such as COMESA and its competition enforcement body, are undergoing significant changes (such as, currently, an opaque process of raising the heretofore insufficient merger-filing thresholds), shockingly successful web attacks on their data, and a resulting dearth of transactions being notified.  Elsewhere in developing economies, recent political turmoil has likewise led observes to comment on the negative spillover effect from political & social spheres into the economy (e.g., Financial Times, May 8, 2014: “Political crisis further dents prospects for Thai economy“).

Impact on antitrust practice

The upshot for competition-law practitioners and enforcers alike is rather straightforward, AAT predicts: more hesitation around African deals being done means fewer notifications, less enforcement, and overall lower billings for firms.

The flip side of the coin – as is usually the case in the economic sine curve of growth and slowdowns – is the commonly-observed inverse relationship of M&A and criminal antitrust: while we may see fewer transactions in the short term, the incidence of cartel behaviour and commercial bribery & government-contract fraud cases will likely increase.

Slow-going M&A statistics in COMESA before anticipated threshold revision

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COMESA Competition Commission logo

Strong numbers from early 2014 did not hold up

After posting a record three merger notifications in January, the COMESA Competition Commission has seen its M&A filing statistics decline to zero in February and merely one in March.

As we have reported here (optimistic for 2014) and here (pessimistic on 2013 statistics), COMESA’s notified M&A deals have seen erratic ups & downs.  Not surprising, perhaps, if one considers the exquisite confusion that has reigned since the inception of the young antitrust authority about filing thresholds and fees.

The current ebb in notified deals (despite the record set in January) reflects, in our view, the impending end of the current “zero-threshold” regime in COMESA, which was foreshadowed by The CCC’s head of mergers, Willard Mwemba, back in late February 2014.  Quite understandably, parties to ongoing transactions are willing to risk “flying under the radar” if the agency has de facto admitted that the zero-dollar filing threshold is unworkable in practice.

We are curious to see what impact the vacuum of the pending revision to the COMESA merger rules will have on filing statistics going forward, until a more sensible threshold is set by the agency.  For now, with the latest notification #4/2014 (fertilizer and industrial products acquisition by Yara International ASA of OFD Holdings Inc.*) the stats look like this:

* we note that in the notice, the CCC erroneously set the deadline for public comment prior to the notice date itself, namely as “Friday, 28th February, 2014.”

competition law antitrust Africa
COMESA CCC M&A filing statistics as of March 2014